📌 The African Union, regional powers, and the Somali government have rejected Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, with Mogadishu demanding an immediate reversal of this act of “aggression.”

Arab countries openly accused Israel of plotting to use Somaliland as a dumping ground for Palestinians, echoing reports of Israeli intrigues in this direction.

What makes Somaliland significant?

🔴 Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 as the US-backed Barre regime collapsed after a devastating war with Ethiopia.

🔴 The breakaway has a population of just 5 to 6 million, meaning moving even a small portion of Gaza’s 2 million people would have major repercussions (the region is food insecure, and consistently ranks among the poorest in the world).

Strategic location

♦️ Somaliland is situated on the Horn of Africa, bordering on the Gulf of Aden and the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, which Yemen’s Ansar Allah (Houthis) effectively closed down to Israeli shipping through most of the Gaza War, humiliating the IDF, Britain, and the US, whose strikes proved powerless to stop them.

♦️ The breakaway’s northwest is situated 400 km from Hodeidah, the strategic Houthi-run port, and ~450 km from Sanaa – the capital.

♦️ A foothold in Somaliland would thus dramatically strengthen Israel’s capabilities against Yemen, both in targeting Houthis and propping up various Yemeni factions against them.

Warning signs

🔴 Less than two weeks before recognition, a senior Israeli official told media that Tel Aviv was “communicating” with Mogadishu (see here) about joint efforts against the Houthis. Publicly rebuked, Israel went with Plan B: recognize Somaliland.

🔴 Also last month, Israel’s influential Institute for National Security Studies detailed the rationale, stressing that Somaliland’s proximity to Houthi areas “could be a game changer” and give the IDF a “forward base.”

🔴 The Institute also pointed out that Somaliland’s “location at the entrance to the Gulf of Aden…gives it a unique geostrategic importance. This strategic value was why the British Empire took control of the territory at the end of the 19th century.”

🔴 65 years after London released its Somaliland vassal, Israel is apparently trying to shackle the breakaway to a new master – itself.

See Laura Ru’s Telegram post for more.